Green Shoots for St. Patrick's Day

The markets have reacted positively to dovish comments by the Fed which indicate they will only look to raise rates twice this year.   Since markets hit their low on February 11th we have seen significant gains across most asset classes.  In addition, while many companies were reporting negative revenue growth year over year, most analysts are anticipating revenue growth in the second half of the year.  This could indicate continued volatility in the short term on negative reporting, but provides some green shoots that provide long-term optimism.

Given the volatility earlier in the year in technology sectors the Nasdaq continues to lag the other major indexes.  As of March 17th the Nasdaq is still down 4.64% on the year.  The S&P 500 is just down 0.16% year to date and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now positive by 0.32%. 

Our tactical models continue to hold up nicely.  As of the close of the market today here are the returns for our tactical models:

Risk Managed Capital Appreciation: 1.35%
Disciplined Balanced Growth: 0.36%
Tactical Aggressive Growth: -2.66%

Your performance may vary slightly due to the size of your account, the impact of transaction fees and these performance numbers include our advisory fees from the fourth quarter of 2015 that were withdrawn in January.

Just a reminder our tactical strategies use several indicators including long-term, quarterly, and short-term.  The long-term indicator remains bearish and has several technical barriers to overcome.  The quarterly indicator was bearish for the first quarter but may flip bullish if this current rally continues.  The short-term indicator is bullish and has added equity exposure to our models.

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